Revisión sistemática sobre resiliencia estatal y brechas sistémicas en gestión del riesgo de desastres
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21082316Palabras clave:
resiliencia estatal, gestión del riesgo de desastres, gobernanza del riesgoResumen
El presente estudio examina la resiliencia del Estado peruano en la gestión del riesgo de desastres dentro del contexto latinoamericano, una de las regiones más vulnerables al cambio climático por sus características geográficas. Aunque existen marcos normativos avanzados, persiste una brecha considerable entre el diseño institucional y su implementación efectiva. La investigación se desarrolló mediante una revisión sistemática de la literatura siguiendo la metodología PRISMA, que analizó 44 estudios publicados entre 2015 y 2024. Los resultados muestran que el déficit de resiliencia estatal es sistémico y se articula en cinco dimensiones interrelacionadas: gobernanza fragmentada y centralizada; planificación territorial deficiente; capacidades técnicas limitadas; baja participación comunitaria; y persistencia de vulnerabilidades estructurales. Además, se identifica una brecha crítica entre el conocimiento disponible y su aplicación práctica, lo que afecta negativamente la incorporación de ese conocimiento en las políticas públicas. Se concluye que fortalecer la resiliencia estatal requiere superar el enfoque reactivo predominante y avanzar hacia una gobernanza del riesgo proactiva, descentralizada, transparente e inclusiva. Este análisis ofrece una síntesis integrada de factores clave y subraya la necesidad de incorporar la gestión del riesgo en la planificación del desarrollo, abordando las causas estructurales de la vulnerabilidad y presentando implicaciones relevantes para América Latina.
Descargas
Referencias
Aguirre, J., De La Torre Ugarte, D., Bazo, J., Quequezana, P., & Collado, M. (2019). Evaluation of early action mechanisms in Peru regarding preparedness for El Niño. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 10, 493–510. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-019-00245-x
Alatrista Salas, H., Gauthier, V., Núñez del Prado, M., & Becker, M. (2021). Impacto de los desastres naturales en el comportamiento del consumidor: Caso del fenómeno de El Niño de 2017 en Perú. PLOS ONE, 16(1), e0244409. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244409
Androsov, A., Harig, S., Zamora, N., Knauer, K., & Rakowsky, N. (2024). Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24, 1635–1656. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024
Aponte, H., Coello Sarmiento, M. P., & Montes Iturrizaga, D. (2025). New insights about the drivers of change in the coastal wetlands of Peru: Results of a rapid field survey. Water, 17(10), 1473. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17101473
Arana Ruedas, D. P. R., Pino Vargas, E., del Águila Ríos, S., & Huayna, G. (2025). Mapping flood prone areas using GIS and morphometric analysis in the Mantaro watershed, Peru: Approach to susceptibility assessment and management. Sustainability, 17(17), 7809. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177809
Bell, I., Laurie, N., Calle, O., Carmen, M., & Valdez, A. (2024). Education for disaster resilience: Lessons from El Niño. Geoforum, 148, 103919. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2023.103919
Behnke, N. (2024). Coping with turbulence and safeguarding against authoritarianism: Polycentric governance as a resilience resource. Politics and Governance, 12. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.8596
Bollen, M., & Kalkman, J. P. (2022). Civil–military cooperation in disaster and emergency response: Practices, challenges, and opportunities. Journal of Advanced Military Studies, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.20221301004
Bollettino, V., & Anders, B. (2020). Civil–military coordination: A framework for measuring effectiveness in humanitarian response. Journal of Humanitarian Affairs, 2(1), 3–10. https://doi.org/10.7227/JHA.029
Caballero Peralta, J., Antiporta, D. A., Cutipé, Y., Vargas Machuca, R., Rojas, C., Cortez Vergara, C., Vega Dienstmaier, J. M., Benheim, T. S., Dutta, A., Holcomb, J. M., Peña, F., Jellinek, M., & Murphy, J. M. (2022). Caregiver and youth mental health during COVID 19: Risk and resilience factors in a large national sample in Peru. COVID, 2, 1594–1608. https://doi.org/10.3390/covid2110115
Caramanica, A., Huaman Mesía, L., Morales, C. R., Huckleberry, G., Castillo Butters, L. J., & Quilter, J. (2020). El Niño resilience farming on the north coast of Peru. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(39), 24127–24137. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006519117
Ccopi Trucios, D., Barzola Rojas, B., Ruiz Soto, S., Gabriel Campos, E., Ortega Quispe, K., & Córdova Buiza, F. (2023). River flood risk assessment in communities of the Peruvian Andes: A semiquantitative application for disaster prevention. Sustainability, 15(18), 13768. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151813768
Cerna Cueva, A. F., Uriarte Barraza, K. L., Lobatón Tarazona, G. I., Saenz Corrales, W., Aguirre Escalante, C., Coaguila Rodríguez, P., & Reategui Inga, M. (2024). Influence of high Andean grasslands on landslide reduction in Peru. Scientia Agropecuaria, 15(3), 333–348. https://doi.org/10.17268/sci.agropecu.2024.025
Emmer, A., Vilca, O., Salazar Checa, C., Li, S., Cook, S., Pummer, E., Hrebrina, J., & Haeberli, W. (2025). Causes, consequences and implications of the 2023 landslide induced Lake Rasac glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 25(5), 1207–1228. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025
Esenarro, D., Manosalva, J., Sanchez, L., Vargas, C., Raymundo, V., & Ccalla, J. (2024). Resilient urban design strategies for landslide risk mitigation in Huaraz, Peru. Urban Science, 8(3), 90. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci8030090
Espinoza, J., Paucar, A., Silva, M. D. C., Quispe, S., Acosta, K., Chambe, E., Osco, E., Córdova, F., Burrowes, T., & Huerta, L. N. (2022). Enabling risk management and adaptation to climate change through a network of Peruvian universities. Sustainability, 14(24), 16754. https://doi.org/10.3390/2071-1050/14/24/16754
Flores Sánchez, C. R., García Camacho, O. E., & Rivadeneira Rivas, M. E. (2023). Resiliencia comunitaria en la reducción del riesgo de desastres con líderes barriales peruanos. EduSol, 23(85), 59–74. http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1729-80912023000400059
Flores, E. C., Fuhr, D. C., Simms, V., Lescano, A. G., & Thorogood, N. (2025). Beyond the flood: Exploring the psychosocial consequences and resilience challenges in the aftermath of “El Niño” in Tumbes, Peru. The Journal of Climate Change and Health, 24, 100477. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100477
French, A., Mechler, R., Arestegui, M., MacClune, K., & Cisneros, A. (2020). Root causes of recurrent catastrophe: The political ecology of El Niño related disasters in Peru. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 47, 101539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101539
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., Brinckmann, N., Lizarazo Marriaga, J., Medina, S., Tarque, N., & Cotton, F. (2023). Scenario based multi risk assessment from existing single hazard vulnerability models: An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23, 2203–2228. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023
Graveline, M. H., & Germain, D. (2022). Disaster risk resilience: Conceptual evolution, key issues, and opportunities. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 13(3), 330–341. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-022-00419-0
Greiving, S., Fleischhauer, M., León, C. D., Schödl, L., Wachinger, G., Quintana Miralles, I. K., & Prado Larraín, B. (2021). Participatory assessment of multi risks in urban regions—The case of critical infrastructures in metropolitan Lima. Sustainability, 13(5), 2813. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052813
Guerrero Compeán, R., & Lacambra Ayuso, S. (2020). Disasters and loss of life: New evidence on the effect of disaster risk management governance in Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter American Development Bank. https://doi.org/10.18235/0002781
Karnoto, B. K., Purwanto, A., & Budiaman. (2025). Integrating indigenous knowledge with modern disaster risk reduction systems for enhanced community resilience. International Journal of Environmental Sciences, 11(1), 87–103. https://doi.org/10.64252/jf3bj759
Kalogiannidis, S., Kalfas, D., Chatzitheodoridis, F., & Lekkas, E. (2023). Role of governance in developing disaster resiliency and its impact on economic sustainability. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(3), 151. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16030151
Kluger, L. C., Kochalski, S., Aguirre Velarde, A., Vivar, I., & Wolff, M. (2019). Coping with abrupt environmental change: The impact of the coastal El Niño 2017 on artisanal fisheries and mariculture in north Peru. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 76(4), 1122–1130. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsy171
Koliou, M., van de Lindt, J. W., McAllister, T. P., Ellingwood, B. R., Dillard, M., & Cutler, H. (2018). State of the research in community resilience: Progress and challenges. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 3(3), 131–151. https://doi.org/10.1080/23789689.2017.1418547
Lavell, A., Chávez Eslava, A., Barros Salas, C., & Miranda Sandoval, D. (2023). Inequality and the social construction of urban disaster risk in multi hazard contexts: The case of Lima, Peru and the COVID 19 pandemic. Environment & Urbanization, 35(1), 131–155. https://doi.org/10.1177/09562478221149883
Lerner, A., & Van Praag, L. (2024). Local community leaders on social resilience to environmental disasters: The case of El Niño in Lurigancho Chosica in Perú. Journal of Rural Studies, 109, 103342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2024.103342
Majlingová, A., & Kádár, T. S. (2025). From risk to resilience: Integrating climate adaptation and disaster reduction in the pursuit of sustainable development. Sustainability, 17(12), 5447. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125447
Manta, M. I., Kometter, R., & Navia, A. (2018). Evaluation of wildfire danger in the Peruvian Andes: First step for its reduction and adaptation. In D. X. Viegas (Ed.), Advances in Forest Fire Research 2018 (pp. 44–56). [Conference chapter]. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329327829_
Mlenga, D. H. (2016). Towards community resilience: Focus on a rural water supply, sanitation and hygiene project in Swaziland. American Journal of Rural Development, 4(4), 85–92. https://doi.org/10.12691/ajrd-4-4-2
Moya, L., Vilela, M., Jaimes, J., Espinoza, B., Pajuelo, J., Tarque, N., Santa Cruz, S., Vega Centeno, P., & Yamazaki, F. (2024). Vulnerabilities and exposure of recent informal urban areas in Lima, Peru. Progress in Disaster Science, 23, 100345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100345
Obando Zegarra, R., Arévalo Ipanaqué, J. M., Aliaga Sánchez, R. A., Cernuda Martínez, J. A., Delgado Echevarría, J. C., & Arcos González, P. (2023). Disaster preparedness and hospital safety in state hospitals in Lima (Peru). Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 38(5), 601–605. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X23006179
Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., Shamseer, L., Tetzlaff, J. M., Akl, E. A., Brennan, S. E., Chou, R., Glanville, J., Grimshaw, J. M., Hróbjartsson, A., Lalu, M. M., Li, T., Loder, E. W., Mayo Wilson, E., McDonald, S., … Moher, D. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ, 372(71). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71
Parodi, E., Kahhat, R., & Vázquez Rowe, I. (2021). Multi dimensional damage assessment (MDDA): A case study of El Niño flood disasters in Peru. Climate Risk Management, 33, 100329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100329
Perez, C., Nicklin, C., Dangles, O., Vanek, S., Sherwood, S., Halloy, S., Garrett, K., & Forbes, G. (2010). Climate change in the High Andes: Implications and adaptation strategies for small scale farmers. The International Journal of Environmental, Cultural, Economic and Social Sustainability, 6(5). https://doi.org/10.18848/1832-2077/CGP/v06i05/54835
Perez, J., Cabrera, N., & Reza, A. (2025). Preparedness and strengths in disaster risk management in Lurigancho Chosica, Lima, Peru: Toward resilience of Lima Metropolitan. E3S Web of Conferences, 651, 03005. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202565103005
Pereira Covarrubias, A., & Raju, E. (2020). The politics of disaster risk governance and neo extractivism in Latin America. Politics and Governance, 8(4), 220–231. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v8i4.3147
Ramírez, I. J., & Briones, F. (2017). Understanding the El Niño Costero of 2017: The definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 8(4), 489–492. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-017-0151-8
Recharte, J., & Rondán Ramírez, V. (2024). Planificación participativa para la reducción del riesgo de desastres: Rutas de aprendizaje para reducir la brecha entre Estado y territorio. Revista Kawsaypacha: Sociedad y Medio Ambiente, (14), D001. https://doi.org/10.18800/kawsaypacha.202402.D001
Reid, H., Alam, M., Berger, R., Cannon, T., Huq, S., & Milligan, A. (2009). Community based adaptation to climate change: An overview. Participatory Learning and Action, 60, 11–33. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272791313_Community-based_adaptation_to_climate_change_An_overview
Rethlefsen, M. L., Kirtley, S., Waffenschmidt, S., Ayala, A. P., Moher, D., Page, M. J., Koffel, J. B., & PRISMA S Group. (2021). PRISMA S: An extension to the PRISMA statement for reporting literature searches in systematic reviews. Systematic Reviews, 10(1), 39. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13643-020-01542-z
Roland, H. B., Curtis, K. J., Malecki, K. M. C., Lee, D., Bazo, J., & Block, P. (2023). Geographic isolation and vulnerability across Peru’s ecological regions: The influence of regional contexts of extraction. Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 113(10), 2295–2317. https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2023.2216762
Rollenbeck, R., Orellana Alvear, J., Bendix, J., Rodriguez, R., Pucha Cofrep, F., Guallpa, M., Fries, A., & Célleri, R. (2022). The coastal El Niño event of 2017 in Ecuador and Peru: A weather radar analysis. Remote Sensing, 14(4), 824. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14040824
Rodríguez Álvarez, N., & Kruczkiewicz, A. (2022). Towards a flood assessment product for the humanitarian and disaster management sectors based on GNSS bistatic radar measurements. Climate, 10(5), 77. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050077
Ronda, G., Santi, P., Pope, I. E., Vargas Luque, A. L., & Barriga Paria, C. J. (2024). Linking Inca terraces with landslide occurrence in the Ticsani Valley, Peru. Geosciences, 14(11), 315. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences14110315
Torres Mercado, C. E., Villafuerte Jeremías, J. A., Guerreros Ollero, G. P., & Perez Campomanes, G. (2025). Comparison of flood scenarios in the Cunas River under the influence of climate change. Hydrology, 12(5), 117. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12050117
Valladares Garrido, M. J., Huamani Colquichagua, Y., Anchay Zuloeta, C., Picón Reátegui, C. K., & Valladares Garrido, D. (2022). Time in service and resilience in active military personnel during the COVID 19 pandemic: A cross sectional study in Northern Peru. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(17), 11052. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191711052
Vigil, A. J. E., & Booker, J. (2023). Building national disaster resilience: Assessment of ENSO driven disasters in Peru. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijdrbe-10-2022-0102
Vilca Campana, K., Carrasco Valencia, L., Iruri Ramos, C., Cárdenas Pillco, B., Escudero, A., & Chanove Manrique, A. (2025). Improving urban flood resilience: Urban flood risk mitigation assessment using a geospatial model in the urban section of a river corridor. Water, 17(7), 1047. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17071047
Wang, C., Antos, S. E., Gosling Goldsmith, J. G., Triveno, L. M., Zhu, C., von Meding, J., & Ye, X. (2024). Assessing climate disaster vulnerability in Peru and Colombia using street view imagery: A pilot study. Buildings, 14(1), 14. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14010014
Zhu, L., Gao, C., Wu, M., & Zhu, R. (2025). Integrating blue–green infrastructure with gray infrastructure for climate resilient surface water flood management in the plain river networks. Land, 14(3), 634. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14030634
Descargas
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
La revista se acoge a la licencia Licencia Atribución (CC BY), permitiendo la posibilidad de copiar, distribuir, exhibir, y producir obras derivadas, siempre y cuando se reconozca y cite al autor.







